نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی
1 گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه یاسوج
2 دانشگاه پیام نور، واحد قزوین (نویسنده مسئول)
عنوان مقاله [English]
16 July 2016 coup in Turkey can be followed by the important domestic and regional implications for the AKP. Hence, the present study based on the Scenario Planning Process attempts to answer this main question that the "future of the AKP" after the coup of 16 July 2016, what direction will it go. In this way, philosophical thoughts and scientific methods and models will be used to study the future and by using them the possible alternative futures is drawn. Scenario Planning Process, also is one of the methods of future studies that upon which description the upcoming events that may occur under certain condition will be described. discussing the future, and possible alternative futures delineates in this regard, four scenarios can be presented in two categories: a) favorable scenario includes: 1) The final victory of the AKP and the marginalization of rival parties; 2) Regional leadership of the AKP. b) Probable scenario include: 1) reducing internal and external popularity of the party and the collapse of Erdogan government; 2) The fragmentation of Turkey and achieving independence by the Kurds. Despite the failed coup in 2016 and the government's success in thwarting a coup, the consequences of the coup particularly 16 April 2017 referendum, the government will lead to the continuation of relations of domination. However, the AKP, should pay attention to the fact that if it does not use the peaceful means of democracy undoutably, in the upcoming years will lose their domestic legitimacy. In fact, carring on the mere political, economic, cultural and democratic reforms was not able to respond to current challenges that Turkish society has been faced with and the AKP leaders will be involved with the various crises.