Introduction and Objectives: Artificial intelligence (AI) is bringing about fundamental changes in international and regional security. Unlike traditional military technologies, which have primarily contributed to increasing destructive capabilities or developing weapons systems, AI is transforming the cognitive foundations of deterrence and strategic stability by influencing intelligence collection, data analysis, decision-making, command, and control processes. These transformations have particularly profound implications for crisis-prone regions such as the Middle East, which is characterized by geopolitical rivalries, mutual distrust, weak crisis-management mechanisms, and the absence of arms-control regimes. The main objective of this study is to explain the mechanisms through which AI affects strategic stability and to examine their implications in the Middle East.

Methods: This study adopts a qualitative approach and employs a descriptive-analytical research method. The data were collected through a review of documents, scholarly sources, authoritative international reports, and theoretical literature on AI, deterrence, and strategic stability. In addition, the distinctive characteristics of the Middle Eastern security environment, including the multiplicity of state and non-state actors, geopolitical rivalries, cyber threats, and the absence of institutionalized crisis-management mechanisms, were considered contextual factors in analyzing the implications of this technology.

Results and discussion: The findings indicate that AI affects strategic stability through three principal mechanisms. First, by enhancing big-data analysis capabilities, developing intelligent surveillance systems, improving target-identification accuracy, and strengthening early-warning systems, AI increases states' situational awareness. Although this can reduce informational uncertainty, it simultaneously heightens concerns about the vulnerability of strategic assets and intensifies the security dilemma as strategic ambiguity diminishes. Second, AI compresses the cycle of intelligence collection, analysis, decision-making, and action, thereby reducing the time available for political and military leaders to make decisions. This development increases the likelihood of miscalculation, hasty decision-making, and unintended crisis escalation. Third, by enhancing the capabilities to detect, track, and target strategic assets, AI affects the survivability of deterrent forces and strengthens incentives for preemptive action or the adoption of more offensive doctrines. The findings further indicate that, in the Middle East, the destabilizing effects of AI are likely to be more severe than in other regions because of the absence of effective security arrangements, the lack of confidence-building mechanisms, growing competition among regional and extra-regional powers, and substantial investments by regional actors in developing intelligent systems.

Conclusions: AI is not inherently a destabilizing technology; rather, its effects depend on the prevailing security environment and the ways in which it is governed. While AI offers considerable potential to improve information accuracy, enhance decision-making quality, and strengthen crisis management, in the absence of clear rules, effective institutions, and mutual trust, it may also intensify security competition, increase strategic misperceptions, and undermine regional stability. Managing the strategic implications of AI therefore requires technological development to proceed alongside mechanisms for oversight, transparency, and risk mitigation. Accordingly, the future of strategic stability in the Middle East will depend less on the pace of AI development than on the ability of regional states to establish security dialogues, develop shared rules for the responsible use of AI, strengthen confidence-building mechanisms, improve crisis-management capabilities, and preserve a meaningful human role in strategic decision-making.