الگوی تحلیلی روابط ایران و عربستان سعودی از 1979 تا 2024

Extended Abstract
Introduction: As two powerful neighbors and regional rivals, Iran and Saudi Arabia have always maintained complex relations. Beyond the commonly cited geopolitical and ideological differences, the roots of their current relationship can arguably be found in a deeper layer of mutual actions and reactions. This raises a fundamental question: what are the underlying foundations of the analytical model for Iran–Saudi Arabia relations? In response, it can be argued that these relations are shaped by three key variables: “uncertainty and unpredictability,” “accumulated crises,” and “institutionalized distance.” By considering these three interrelated factors—each of which can be evaluated on various levels—one can develop a more accurate understanding of the trajectory of Iran–Saudi Arabia relations and their likely future direction.
Methods: This study adopts a descriptive–analytical approach grounded in the use of cited sources. It seeks to provide a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia by exploring the three central concepts mentioned above: “uncertainty and unpredictability,” “accumulated crises,” and “institutionalized distance.”
Results and Discussion: Using these three conceptual variables, it becomes clear that unpredictability in Iran–Saudi Arabia relations has led to growing distrust, reinforcing a persistently negative perception each country holds of the other. As relations continue amid persistent uncertainty, this has resulted in the accumulation of crises—a situation in which the two nations have rarely achieved mutual understanding or resolution. Consequently, most bilateral crises have remained unresolved and have merely endured over time. The combined effect of unpredictability and cumulative crises has produced a third variable: institutionalized distance. Over the years, both Iran and Saudi Arabia have adapted to a political existence that functions independently of the other, shaped by longstanding distrust and tension. This distancing is further exacerbated by factors such as the influence of the United States as a trans-regional power and the lack of economic interdependence between the two countries. Additionally, the emergence of a new Saudi leadership with a fundamentally different approach to foreign policy has further entrenched this distance.
Conclusion: Considering the three aforementioned variables, it appears unlikely that Iran–Saudi Arabia relations can continue without fragility, even following the normalization of ties. This fragility is heightened by the distinct international alignments of the two states. Both have chosen different global power poles and continue to rely heavily on oil-based economies. However, it is worth noting that Saudi Arabia, under its current leadership, is pursuing economic diversification and a transition to a post-oil economy through Vision 2030, potentially widening the economic gap between the two nations. In conclusion, although diplomatic normalization has occurred, there is no guarantee of enduring stability in the relationship. The situation appears even more precarious with the potential return of the Trump administration, which may pressure Saudi Arabia to align more closely with U.S. policies against Iran. Thus, despite formal diplomatic ties, Iran–Saudi Arabia relations remain vulnerable and subject to the complex interplay of longstanding structural tensions.
Keywords: Islamic Republic of Iran, Saudi Arabia, unpredictability, cumulative crises, institutionalized distance.