نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی
نویسنده
استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد چالوس، ، چالوس، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Introduction: International order has been undergone structural changes during past decades: the collapse of communist bloc, which turned the theoretical field of international relations into futuring speculations about the post-Cold War order, also rise of emerging powers, which led to the idea of changing the international order. According to "structuralism", the new international order leads to a change in state's foreign policy, especially one involved in systemic conflict such as the Islamic Republic. It should redefine its international role and status. Assuming the continuity of the polarity, the article is focused on question of which probable structure will determine the new international order and what requirements will it impose on the foreign policy of Iran? Purpose is to explain the most probable international order, and to prescribe the strategic requirements of Iran's foreign policy.
Methods: The article uses TIA based on the "international order", explaines the continuities and changes of international polarity and its most probable perspective. The methodology founds on structuralism approach (Neorealosm and Neoliberalism), and consists two components. First, future-looking TIA that deals with the exploration of international trends and events and the driving forces of international politics and draws the probable future of the international order (bi-multipolarity). The second, future-writing TIA aimed at scenario-making for Iran's interest, and it address the normative inference of Iran's strategic requirements within bi-multipolar structure as a tolerable order.
Results and Discussion: By examining international events and trends and inferring the drivers of international politics, the present article has assumed the continuity of polarity as the main component of the international order and has introduced the bi-multipolar structure as the most likely future form of the international order and model of a tolerable order for the Islamic Republic. In this probable order, the United States and China will have the upper hand in the international system far from other powers, and their competition-cooperation will determine international procedures and behavior patterns. It is in this structural context that the normative implications of Iran's foreign policy can be deduced. The findings indicate that Iran's foreign policy based on a realistic and consensus understanding of the new international structural and institutional arrangement requires international social capitalization, passing from the role of a disorderly actor to an orderly and order-building one, Passing from a negative participant to a positive participant in regional and international affairs and finally and the coexistence of a balancing foreign policy with a balanced foreign policy.
Conclusion: Results show that the redistribution of wealth, power and ideology in international politics promises the gradual structural changes in international system. The preference of rising powers for improving their international role and position, and some old traditional powers, is irreversibility of bipolar and unipolar orders. Regardless of which type of international order is desirable for states including Iran, international trends and events show the formation of a bi-multipolar order with US-China polarity. Strong point of Iran's foreign policy is that it has already established harmonious relations with China. The policy seems important in two ways. Firstly, this policy is considered a strategic choice due to structural changes; secondly, it is considered a strategic necessity due to the possibility of continued confrontation between Iran- America. Despitely, Iran's foreign policy needs to diversify its foreign relations so that the rising powers don't become unrivaled activists in its foreign policy.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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