رهیافت‌های سیاسی و بین ‌المللی

رهیافت‌های سیاسی و بین ‌المللی

اقتصاد سیاسی بین‌المللی‌شدن ارزهای نوظهور؛ تحلیلی بر روندها و پیامدهای بین‌المللی‌شدن یوان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
سحر پیران خو 1
علی امیدی 2
ایمان باستانی فر 3
1 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین الملل، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.
2 دانشیار روابط بین الملل، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم ادارای و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران. (نویسنده مسئول).
3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم ادارای و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.
10.48308/piaj.2024.235481.1521
چکیده
مقدمه و اهداف: با ظهور شگفت‌انگیز اقتصاد چین در سده بیست و یکم و نقش بی‌بدیل آن کشور در مبادلات تجاری و مالی، بین‌المللی‌شدن یوان چین به یکی از شاخص‌های اصلی تجلی چین به‌عنوان قدرت سیاسی و اقتصادی اثرگذار در نظم جهانی موجود تبدیل شده است؛ چنانکه با مطرح‌شدن چالش‌های عمده فراروی ایفای نقش دلار از یک‌سو و ارتقای جایگاه چین در سلسله‌مراتب قدرت جهانی از سوی دیگر، بحث‌های جدیدی در خصوص ظهور ارز چینی یوان یا رنمنبی به‌عنوان ارز بین‌المللی در محافل علمی و سیاست‌گذاری درگرفته و احتمال‌های متعددی در باب امکان و امتناع آن مطرح می‌شود. صرف‌نظر از این امکان و امتناع، نکته‌ای که به نظر در باب آن هیچ تردیدی وجود ندارد، پیامدهای فراروی این بین‌المللی‌شدن ارز است؛ زیرا آمدوشد یک ارز در عرصه بین‌المللی و نیل آن به موقعیت واسطه‌گری مالی یا تبدیل‌شدن آن به مبنای ذخیره ارزش، هم دارای بنیانی سیاسی و هم دارای اثرپذیری از مؤلفه‌های قدرت است. مقاله حاضر با هدف بررسی روندها و پیامدهای بین‌المللی‌شدن یوان با در نظرگیری عدم قطعیت موجود در نظام سیاسی و اقتصادی این کشور تدوین شده و به این سؤال پاسخ می‌دهد که بین‌المللی‌شدن یوان با چه پیامدهایی ناشی از عدم قطعیت سیاسی و اقتصادی همراه است.
روش‌ها: این مقاله با گزینش رویکرد عدم قطعیت در قالب فرضیه و با بهره‌گیری از روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و اکتشافی بر این نظر است که بین‌المللی‌شدن هر ارز نوظهور ازجمله یوان، مستلزم کاهش عدم قطعیت در حوزه‌های سیاسی و اقتصادی است که در صورت درک و مدیریت این پیامدها، بین‌المللی‌شدن یوان تسهیل شده و در غیراینصورت این بین‌المللی‌شدن دشوار خواهد شد. این مقاله، مسیر بین‌المللی‌شدن یوان را مفروض گرفته و به دنبال آینده‌پژوهی نیست بلکه بحث اصلی خود را با اتکا به تجربه تاریخی ارزهای سنتی‌تر و پراستفاده در نظام پولی بین‌المللی همچون دلار در یک چارچوب تحلیلی بر پیامدهای محتمل متمرکز می‌کند.
یافته‌ها: مقاله حاضر با مفروض‌ گرفتن بین‌المللی‌شدن یوان در آینده نظام پولی بین‌المللی، در قالب یافته‌ها، الزامات و پیامدهای مربوط به عدم قطعیت سیاسی را در محورهایی همچون اصلاحات دموکراتیک، چین به‌مثابه قدرت مسئول، افزایش نفوذ آن در جنوب جهانی و تصویرسازی از این کشور به‌مثابه قدرت بزرگ معرفی کرده و عدم قطعیت اقتصادی را می‌توان در مؤلفه‌هایی همچون تعدیل و اصلاح ساختار اقتصاد سیاسی چین، تغییر وضعیت تعیین قیمت توسط دولت، دشوار شدن نظام تحریم دلاری و تقویت نهادهای اقتصادی چینی مشاهده کرد.
نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج این پژوهش نشان می‌دهند بین‌المللی‌شدن یک ارز در مرتبه نخست، درگرو پشتوانه و ظرفیت های اقتصادی کشور دارنده آن ارز است و در مرتبه دوم، به اعتماد آن از سوی کشورهای حامی. در این شرایط، یوان چین علی‌رغم اینکه بنا بر آمارهای موجود از حیث مبادلات بین‌المللی در جایگاهی بعد از ارزهای سنتی دلار، پوند، یورو و ین ژاپن قرار می‌گیرد اما روند رو به صعود آن حاکی از بین‌المللی‌شدن فزاینده آن است؛ مسیری که بدون تردید اگرچه از ظرفیت های اقتصادی چین متأثر می‌شود اما برای کاهش عدم قطعیت و پیش‌بینی پذیری در محیط داخلی، ضرورت اصلاحات دموکراتیک و شفافیت اقتصادی و نهادی لازم می نماید و در عرصه بین‌المللی نیز، مسئولیت‌پذیری هرچه بیشتر چین در قبال مسائل جهانی، تصویرسازی مثبت این کشور در بخش مهم جنوب جهانی و به‌عنوان قدرتی بزرگ در حل و فصل مسائل جهانی اجتناب ناپذیر است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
چین
یوان
عدم قطعیت
بین‌المللی شدن
ارزهای نوظهور

عنوان مقاله English

The political economy of internationalization of emerging currencies; An analysis of the trends and consequences of the internationalization of the yuan

نویسندگان English

Sahar Pirankhoo 1
Ali Omidi 2
Iman Bastanifar 3
1 Ph.D. candidate in International Relations, Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Administrative Science and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
2 Associate Professor of International Relations, Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Administrative Science and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Science and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
چکیده English

Introduction: With the remarkable rise of China's economy in the 21st century and its unparalleled role in commercial and financial exchanges, the internationalization of the Chinese yuan has become one of the primary indicators of China's emergence as a significant political and economic power in the global order. As major challenges confront the dominance of the U.S. dollar on one hand and China’s ascending position in the global power hierarchy on the other, new debates have emerged regarding the potential of the Chinese currency—the yuan or renminbi—to become an international currency in academic and policy-making circles. Regardless of whether this internationalization is feasible, one thing seems certain: the consequences of such a development. The circulation of a currency such as yuan on the international stage, its status as a financial intermediary, and its transformation into a store of value are influenced by both political foundations and power dynamics. This article aims to explore the trends and consequences of the yuan's internationalization, taking into account the uncertainties within China’s political and economic system, and to answer the question of what consequences might arise from the yuan's internationalization in the context of political and economic uncertainty.
Methods: This article adopts the uncertainty approach as a hypothesis and employs a descriptive-analytical and exploratory method. It posits that the internationalization of any emerging currency, including the yuan, requires a reduction of uncertainty in both political and economic domains. If these uncertainties are understood and managed, the internationalization of the yuan will be facilitated; otherwise, it will face significant challenges. The article assumes the yuan's internationalization as a given trajectory and does not aim at future forecasting. Instead, it focuses its analysis on the potential consequences by drawing on the historical experiences of more established and widely used currencies in the international monetary system, such as the U.S. dollar, within an analytical framework.
Results and Discussion: The present article, assuming the future internationalization of the yuan within the international monetary system, identifies the consequences of political uncertainty in areas such as democratic reforms, China's role as a responsible power, its increasing influence in the Global South, and its portrayal as a major power. Economic uncertainty is discussed in terms of factors such as the adjustment and reform of China’s political-economic structure, changes in government-led price setting, challenges to the U.S. dollar sanctions regime, and the strengthening of Chinese economic institutions.
Conclusion: The findings of this research show that the internationalization of a currency primarily depends on the economic capacities of the country that issues it and, secondarily, on the trust it commands from other countries. Despite the fact that, according to available statistics, the Chinese yuan ranks below traditional currencies such as the dollar, pound, euro, and Japanese yen in terms of international exchange, its rising trend indicates increasing internationalization. This process will undoubtedly be influenced by China's economic capacities. To reduce uncertainty and enhance predictability in the domestic environment, democratic reforms and greater economic and institutional transparency are necessary. Additionally, in the international arena, China must assume greater responsibility for global issues and work towards a positive portrayal of itself as a major power in the Global South, particularly in addressing global challenges.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

China
Yuan
Uncertainty
Internationalization
Emerging currencies
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