شکست و موفقیت در سیاست خارجی: روایت‌پژوهی برجام

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین الملل، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

چکیده مبسوط
مقدمه و اهداف: سیاست خارجی مانند هر سازه اجتماعی دیگری قابل ارزیابی است. یکی از روش‌های ارزیابی سیاست خارجی، تحلیل شکست و موفقیت آن در رسیدن به اهداف موردنظر است. اما نکته چالش‌برانگیز این است که درک مشترکی از معنای موفقیت یا شکست در حوزه سیاست خارجی وجود ندارد؛ چرا که افراد در بسترهای ادراکی مختلف، روایت‌های متفاوتی از موفقیت یا شکست سیاست خارجی ارائه می‌کنند. علی‌رغم گذشت چندین سال از انعقاد برجام همچنان این بحث در ایران مطرح است که آیا این توافق، مصداق شکست در سیاست خارجی ایران است و بنابراین باید مانع از تکرار آن شد یا برعکس، نمونه موفقی از سیاست خارجی است که باید برای احیای تلاش کرد. بر این اساس، سؤال اصلی مقاله این است که روایت‌های مختلف از برجام به عنوان یکی از نقاط عطف مهم سیاست خارجی ایران کدام‌ها هستند و از چه عناصر روایی تشکیل شده‌اند؟
روش‌ها
در گام اول، تحلیل کیفی متون شامل مواضع مقامات رسمی و نیمه‌رسمی درباره برجام نشان داد که می‌توان سه روایت موفقیت، شکست و روایت میانی درباره برجام را از یکدیگر تفکیک کرد. در گام دوم، عناصر ساختاری این روایت‌ها یعنی نحوه صحنه‌آرایی، شخصیت‌پردازی و پیرنگ‌سازی بر اساس روش تحلیل روایت اپرمن و اسپنسر مورد تحلیل قرار گرفتند. در این روش، صحنه‌آرایی به زمینه روایت می‌پردازد که شامل مناقشه بر سر گزینه‌های بدیل تصمیم‌گیری و تفاسیر از بستر تصمیم‌گیری برای درک صحنه است. شخصیت‌پردازی به معنای اطلاق برخی برچسب‌‌ها، ویژگی‌ها و قیاس‌های تاریخی به تصمیم‌گیران و پیوندزدن این افراد با افراد شناخته شده در راستای تحسین و تقبیح روایت‌های خاص است. پیرنگ‌سازی به معنای بررسی فرایند رویدادهاست که شامل قضاوت درباره دستیابی به اهداف، پیامدهای آنها و مشخص‌کردن مسئولیت این پیامدهاست.
یافته‌ها: طرفداران روایت موفقیت، برجام را برطرف‌کننده سایه جنگ از کشور و نشانه بازگشت ایران به جامعه بین‌المللی (صحنه‌آرایی)، آن را با ملّی شدن صنعت نفت و محمد جواد ظریف را با محمد مصدق و امیرکبیر مقایسه می‌کنند و مخالفان را بی‌سواد و ناآشنا با جهان امروز می‌دانند (شخصیت‌پردازی). آنها به توفیق برجام در دستیابی به اهداف از جمله لغو قطعنامه‌های تحریمی شورا امنیت باور دارند (پیرنگ‌سازی).
طرفداران روایت شکست، برجام را عامل خلع سلاح و ابزار فشار بر ایران روایت می‌کنند که به خاطر ساده‌لوحی محمد جواد ظریف در اعطای امتیازات نقد و گرفتن امتیازات نسیه، به قرارداد ترکمانچای دوم تبدیل شده و با دور زدن مجلس شورای اسلامی به تصویب رسید (شخصیت‌پردازی). بنابراین برجام ناقض خطوط قرمز رهبری و ضد امنیت ملّی روایت می‌شود که به هدف اصلی خود در تأمین منافع ملّی ایران نرسید (پیرنگ‌سازی).
طرفداران روایت میانه، اگرچه ابتدا برجام را به عنوان بازی برد ـ برد تصویر می‌کردند، اما به تدریج این خط روایی را پی گرفتند که ایران می‌بایست امتیازات بیشتری از طرف مقابل می‌گرفت (صحنه‌آرایی). این روایت به این معنا میانه است که هم قیاس برجام با ترکمانچای را نفی می‌کند هم فتح‌الفتوح دانستن آنرا. همچنین به‌طور همزمان، تلاش‌های مذاکره‌کنندگان را تحسین می‌کند و برخی سهل‌انگاری‌های آنها را تقبیح (شخصیت‌پردازی). این روایت، نتایج برجام تا قبل از خروج آمریکا را قابل قبول و ارزشمند می‌داند؛ نتایجی که بعد از آن به کلّی از بین رفت (پیرنگ‌سازی).
نتیجه‌گیری: اگرچه ابتدا روایت موفقیت توانست با ارائه داستانی معقول و قدرت گفتمانی مناسب در مناظرات برجامی، بر روایت شکست غلبه کند و روایت مقابل را فاقد ابتکار جایگزین نشان دهد، به‌تدریج روایت شکست با تکیه بر قدرت ساختاری خود توانست با بازنمایی برجام به عنوان قراردادی ناقص و خسارت‌بار، روایت میانه را با خود همراه کند و در نتیجه، روایت موفقیت را به حاشیه براند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Success and Failure in Foreign Policy: Narrative Analysis of JCPOA

نویسندگان [English]

  • Heidarali Masoudi 1
  • Masoud Hamiani 2
1 Assistant Professor, International Relations, The Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran. Iran.
2 Ph.D. Student, International Relations, The Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran. Iran
چکیده [English]

 
Extended Abstract
Introduction: Foreign policy, like any social construct, is subject to evaluation. One method of assessing foreign policy is analyzing its success or failure in achieving intended objectives. However, a challenging aspect is the lack of a shared understanding of what constitutes success or failure in foreign policy, as individuals within different perceptual frameworks present varied narratives of foreign policy outcomes. Despite several years since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was concluded, debate persists in Iran regarding whether this agreement represents a failure in Iran's foreign policy that should be prevented from recurring, or conversely, a successful example of foreign policy that should be revived. Accordingly, the main question of the article is: what are the different narratives about the JCPOA as a pivotal moment in Iran's foreign policy, and what elements constitute these narratives.
Methods: Initially, a qualitative analysis of texts, including official and semi-official statements about the JCPOA, revealed three distinct narratives: Success, Failure, and Intermediate narrative. Subsequently, the structural elements of these narratives— setting of the story, characterization, and emplotment—were analyzed using Oppermann and Spencer's narrative analysis method. In this approach, setting of the story addresses the narrative context, including disputes over alternative decision-making options and interpretations of the decision-making environment. Characterization involves attributing labels, characteristics, and historical comparisons to decision-makers, linking them with well-known figures to either praise or criticize specific narratives. Emplotment examine the process of events, including judgments about goal achievement, their consequences, and attribution of responsibility for these outcomes.
Results and Discussion: Proponents of the Success narrative portrayed the JCPOA as averting the threat of war and signaling Iran's return to the international community (setting of the story). They compared it to the nationalization of the oil industry and likened Mohammad Javad Zarif to Mohammad Mosaddegh and Amir Kabir, while depicting opponents as uneducated and unfamiliar with the modern world (characterization). They also narrated it as successful in achieving objectives, including the lifting of sanctions resolutions (emplotment). Advocates of the Failure narrative depicted the JCPOA as a tool for disarming and pressuring Iran, transformed into a second Treaty of Turkmenchay due to Mohammad Javad Zarif's naivety in exchanging immediate concessions for promised benefits, and approved by circumventing the Iran’s Islamic Parliament (characterization). Consequently, the JCPOA was portrayed as violating the Supreme Leader's red lines and undermining national security, failing to achieve its primary goal of securing Iran's national interests (emplotment). Supporters of the Intermediate narrative initially portrayed the JCPOA as a win-win scenario but gradually developed a narrative, suggesting that Iran should have secured more concessions from the opposing side (setting of the story). This narrative was intermediate, meaning that it rejected both the comparison of the JCPOA to the Treaty of Turkmenchay and its characterization as a great conquest. It simultaneously praised the negotiators' efforts while criticizing some of their oversights (characterization). Prior to the U.S. withdrawal from the Deal, this narrative viewed the Deal as acceptable and valuable, benefits that were subsequently lost (emplotment).
Conclusion: Although the Success narrative initially prevailed over the Failure narrative by presenting a plausible story with appropriate discursive power and portraying the opposing narrative as lacking alternative initiative, the Failure narrative gradually gained ground. By leveraging its structural power and depicting the JCPOA as an incomplete and detrimental agreement, it aligned with the Intermediate narrative, ultimately marginalizing the Success narrative.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Keywords: Foreign Policy
  • JCPOA
  • Success Narrative
  • Failure Narrative
  • Intermediate Narrative

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