تبیین میزان نفوذ تصمیمات شورای امنیت سازمان ملل متحد در افغانستان بر اساس مدل تبعیت متزلزل در دولت‌های درمانده (1991–2021)

Introduction and Objectives: Over the past three decades, Afghanistan has been one of the principal subjects on the agenda of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). From the imposition of sanctions on the Taliban in 1999 to the establishment of international military forces, the creation of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), support for the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and the management of the consequences of the Taliban’s return to power, the Security Council has adopted numerous resolutions addressing security, political, humanitarian, and peacebuilding issues. Nevertheless, the persistence of political instability, the expansion of armed insurgent activities, and ultimately the collapse of the republican regime in 2021 raises an important question: to what extent have Security Council decisions influenced developments in Afghanistan, and which factors have determined the effectiveness of those decisions?

The present study seeks to answer the question of which variables have shaped the influence of United Nations Security Council decisions in Afghanistan and what roles domestic, regional, and international actors have played in the implementation or non-implementation of those decisions. To address this question, the article develops a theoretical framework entitled the **“Volatile Compliance Model in Fragile States.”** By integrating Fragile State Theory, International Compliance Theory, Constructivism, Dependency Theory, and Realism, the model argues that compliance with international institutional decisions in fragile states is neither a unified nor a linear process. Rather, it is conditioned by state capacity, societal normative cleavages, competition among domestic actors, governmental dependence on external support, and rivalry among regional and international powers. Accordingly, the weaker a state’s institutional cohesion and capacity to exercise authority, the more fragmented and volatile compliance with international decisions becomes.

Method: This study employs a mixed-method approach combining descriptive-analytical and survey research designs. Empirical data were collected through questionnaires distributed among university professors in the provinces of Kabul, Herat, and Balkh. Given the non-normal distribution of the data, Spearman’s rank-order correlation coefficient was used to examine the relationships among the variables. The dependent variable is the **influence of United Nations Security Council decisions**, while the independent variables consist of a range of domestic, regional, and international actors.

Findings: The findings indicate that compliance with Security Council decisions in Afghanistan has not been uniform across different actors. The executive branch, formal political parties, and civil society organizations exhibited the highest levels of convergence with Security Council decisions, whereas the Taliban, the Haqqani Network, and other anti-government armed groups demonstrated the greatest degree of divergence. At the regional level, actors’ behavior was influenced less by the legal legitimacy of Security Council resolutions than by geopolitical and security considerations. The statistical results confirm that the success or failure of Security Council decisions in Afghanistan has largely depended on patterns of compliance and resistance among a network of domestic and external actors.

Conclusion: The principal theoretical contribution of this study is the development of the “Volatile Compliance Model in Fragile States”. The model demonstrates that, in conflict-affected and fragile states, the influence of international institutions is contingent upon both the state’s capacity to exercise authority and the degree of cooperation exhibited by influential actors toward international objectives. From this perspective, the Afghan experience represents an important case illustrating the limitations of international governance when confronting fragmented and fragile states.

Keywords: Afghanistan; United Nations Security Council; Fragile State; International Compliance; Taliban; Volatile Compliance Model.