سیاست خارجی آلمان در پرتو تحولات بین‌المللی (2014-2025) از منظر واقع‌گرایی نوکلاسیک

Russia's invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, coupled with the United States' decision from the early years of the second decade of the twenty-first century to reduce its financial commitments to global security, have compelled Germany to redefine its international role in the pursuit of its foreign policy. More precisely, the quality of relations and the strategic choices of major powers—particularly the United States and Russia—over the past decade have profoundly influenced the outcomes of the international system, leading German policymakers between 2014 and 2025 to perceive their country within a novel and distinct structure of international power distribution. Consequently, they no longer view themselves merely as agents enforcing the international order but rather believe they bear the responsibility to engage proactively within it through self-initiated actions. The most evident manifestation of this shift from a role as a subservient executor to a guardian of the international order is Germany's movement toward a security-oriented foreign policy, marked by the emergence of a militarized dimension—a phenomenon that the present study seeks to elucidate through the lens of neoclassical realist theory. Within this framework, the central question posed is: Why has Germany's foreign policy undergone a security-oriented transformation in its shift from a subservient executor to a guardian of the international order? To address this question, the hypothesis under examination in this paper posits that international developments during the 2014–2025 period have reshaped the role of "leaders' beliefs, strategic culture, state-society relations, and domestic institutions in Germany" in advancing this country's foreign policy, thereby strengthening the prominence of security and military considerations within its overarching foreign policy strategy and outcomes.

In this paper, to gather relevant data for testing the hypothesis, a case study approach was employed, focusing on specific revisionist actions and measures in Germany's recent foreign and security policy. This involved document analysis, including the examination of primary and secondary sources, as well as in-depth interpretations of these documents. Given that the collected data are qualitative in nature, qualitative content analysis was utilized as the analytical method. Furthermore, the argumentative foundation rests on hypothesis testing; in this regard, a prominent theory in foreign policy studies—neoclassical realism—is applied to Germany's foreign policy over the 2014–2025 period.

Over the past decade, the "structural modifiers" of the international system have intensified dramatically, creating a divergent context for the variable influences at the systemic level. The impacts of these modifiers are so profound that, from Germany's perspective, the contemporary world is mired more in disorder than order, rendering the adoption of optimal policies for confronting it an imperative. According to neoclassical realism, these modifiers have influenced domestic components—such as leaders' beliefs, strategic culture, state-society relations, and domestic institutions—fostering the conviction and practical outcome that Germany stands at a historical turning point, or Zeitenwende, necessitating a more active and independent agency in shaping the emerging global order and transitioning from a mere executor of the system to its architect. This perception has led to transformations in Germany's foreign policy outputs and a redefinition of its foundational pillars, encompassing transatlantic relations, European integration, Ostpolitik, and the assumption of a role as a normal military power.

The research findings indicate that sustained pressures on the country have elevated discussions regarding Germany's transformation into a normal power—embracing leadership and international responsibilities commensurate with its stature—from mere discursive themes among diverse stakeholders, such as political parties, parliament, social groups, and elites, to an executable process within its security and foreign policy circles. With the proclamation of this historical turning point, Berlin has embarked on the path toward becoming a modern power equipped with military forces possessing deterrent capabilities.