The Role of Emotions in the Persistence of Tensions and Conflicts in the Middle East (2011–2024)

Extended Abstract

Introduction: In the years following the Arab Spring, the Middle East has experienced profound and complex transformations that have influenced patterns of convergence and divergence among countries in the region. However, one aspect that has received less attention in political analyses is the role of emotions in these developments. Accordingly, the main research question of this study is: How have emotions influenced the persistence of tensions and conflicts in the Middle East between 2011 and 2024? In response to this question, the hypothesis proposed is that ethnic, religious, and nationalist emotions in the Middle East after the Arab Spring have led to increased internal conflicts, strengthened anti-foreign sentiments, and heightened public dissatisfaction. Consequently, instead of focusing on collective cooperation, regional countries have prioritized preserving their identities and engaging in regional rivalries. As a result, these emotional dynamics have significantly shaped the orientations and relationships of Middle Eastern countries, steering them toward the persistence of tensions and divergence. The present study aims to examine the impact of emotions on the continuation of tensions and conflicts in Middle Eastern countries from 2011 to 2024.

Methods: This study employs a quantitative analysis method and an explanatory-descriptive approach to investigate the role of ethnic, religious, and nationalist emotions in the persistence of tensions and conflicts in the Middle East between 2011 and 2024. The research data has been gathered from library sources and analyzed using quantitative tools to assess the correlation between variables.

Resalts and Discussion: Following the Arab Spring, Middle Eastern countries faced numerous challenges that intensified nationalist, religious, and ethnic emotions in the region. Based on the theoretical framework of emotional realism, the fear of weakening national and religious identities has driven states and various groups toward reinforcing ethnic and religious boundaries. As a result, instead of fostering cooperation, these dynamics have fueled further conflicts. These emotions, particularly in countries affected by foreign interventions, have led to increased distrust toward external powers and even neighboring states. Consequently, instead of striving for regional cooperation, governments in the region have adopted isolationist policies and strengthened their national identities. Another critical aspect in explaining the hypothesis is the role of collective emotions in Middle Eastern conflicts based on religious and ethnic identities. Regional rivalries among Middle Eastern states have contributed to the formation of religious blocs, each seeking regional and international support. Here, emotional realism explains how religious and ethnic emotions can be politically instrumentalized, leading to intensified competition and conflicts instead of cooperation. Furthermore, emotional realism highlights how the fear of internal instability and external threats has compelled regional states to adopt conservative and isolationist policies.

Conclusion: This study aimed to examine the impact of emotions on the persistence of tensions and conflicts in the Middle East between 2011 and 2024 through the theoretical framework of emotional realism. The findings suggest that emotions have exacerbated conflicts in the post-Arab Spring Middle East. Under these conditions, collective emotions and identities have not only played a central role in shaping domestic and foreign policies but have also emerged as significant obstacles to regional cooperation. Particularly in times of crisis and instability, emotions have reinforced ethnic and religious identities, prompting states to adopt conservative and competitive policies, ultimately leading to the intensification of both internal and international conflicts in the Middle East.