Layered Analysis of the 2022 Protests Based on the Conceptual Framework of "Manipulated Movements"

Extended Abstract 
Introduction: Identifying the trends of protests in Iranian society and utilizing them within the framework of organized movements, especially in recent years, indicates the emergence of a new pattern in protest behaviors. This new pattern, while arising from the constructed discourse of domestic protesters and a response to internal social, economic, and political conditions, appears to also be the result of multidimensional design and guidance by foreign actors. In this context, the protests of 2022 (1401) serve as a prominent example, providing an opportunity to analyze this new pattern and examine the components that shape it. This article seeks to represent this complex situation through the concept of a "manipulated social movement" and, by applying this concept to the protest events of 2022, aims to identify and categorize the key features and components of this movement. The main objective of the article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of how these movements were formed, directed, and influenced the political and social space in contemporary Iran. The primary goal of this research is to contribute to the smart management of protests in Iran. The secondary goals include explaining the components of the 2022 protests and refining the conceptual understanding of manipulated social movements.
Methods: This research is qualitative in nature and employs a descriptive-analytical approach. The data collection method was documentary, with information gathered from reputable online databases and scientific sources. The collected data were analyzed using the Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) method. CLA provides a multi-layered framework for deeper and more multidimensional analysis. It examines the subject of research from four different levels, ranging from surface-level phenomena to deeper conceptual layers, and can be applied both top-down and vice versa.
Result & Discussion: The findings of the research indicate that the manipulated social movement in the protests of 2022 has distinctive features that set it apart from other movements. This movement relies more on virtual actions than on street protests and seeks to conceal its leadership while presenting itself as a grassroots movement. Additionally, it exploits existing crises and conflicts and utilizes foreign support and international media to further its goals. The movement also aims to spread hope for change and the success of the protests among the public, encouraging them to continue their participation. At the metaphorical level, it uses ambiguous concepts and undefined demands to lead people toward unclear objectives. These characteristics contribute to a more precise analysis and better management of protests, increasing the ability to counter negative foreign influences.
Conclusion: The layered analysis of the manipulated social movement reveals that, as a new social movement, it has 12 distinguishing components. In the litany layer, the movement is more virtual, its leadership is hidden, and it has a symbolic character. In the systemic layer, it is based on conflict, follows the protest trend, and is influenced by foreign intervention. In the discourse layer, it emerges from a media-driven discourse, is the result of foreign discourse, and aims to propagate a discourse of hope for change. Finally, in the metaphorical layer, it lacks foundational metaphors, includes constructed and diverse metaphors, and is structured in a three-tiered metaphorical framework