Political and International Approaches

Political and International Approaches

German Foreign Policy in the Wake of International Developments (2014–2025): A Neoclassical Realist Perspective

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Behzad Ahmadi
Assistant Professor, Department of European and Eurasian Studies, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
10.48308/piaj.2026.243152.1844
Abstract

Introduction: Russia's military invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, coupled with the United States' decision since the early 2010s to reduce its financial commitments to global security, have compelled Germany to redefine its international role and foreign policy trajectory. More precisely, the strategic choices and shifting relations of major powers—particularly the United States and Russia—over the past decade have profoundly altered the structural distribution of international power. Between 2014 and 2025, these systemic dynamics led German policymakers to perceive their country within a novel and highly volatile geopolitical reality. Consequently, Berlin no longer views itself merely as a passive beneficiary or executor of the liberal international order, but rather as a proactive guardian bearing the responsibility to defend it through self-initiated strategic actions. The most evident manifestation of this shift is Germany's rapid transition toward a security-oriented foreign policy characterized by an unprecedented remilitarization dimension—a phenomenon this study elucidates through the lens of neoclassical realism. The central research question asks: Why has Germany's foreign policy undergone a security-oriented transformation during its transition from a subservient executor to a guardian of the international order? To address this question, the study hypothesizes that systemic pressures between 2014 and 2025 have fundamentally reshaped the role of domestic intervening variables—specifically leaders' beliefs, strategic culture, state-society relations, and domestic institutions—thereby elevating security and military considerations within Germany's overarching foreign policy strategy and output.
Method: To gather relevant data for hypothesis testing, this study employs a qualitative case-study approach focusing on specific revisionist measures and strategic recalibrations in Germany's recent foreign and security policy. Data collection involved rigorous document analysis of primary and secondary sources, including official defense white papers, parliamentary records, and foreign policy doctrines. Given the qualitative nature of the empirical evidence, qualitative content analysis was utilized as the primary analytical method. Furthermore, the argumentative foundation rests on hypothesis testing, systematically applying neoclassical realism to the trajectory of German foreign policy over the 2014–2025 period to trace how systemic stimuli were filtered through domestic political structures.
Findings: Over the past decade, the intensification of "structural modifiers" within the international system has created a highly divergent and threatening environment at the systemic level. The impacts of these modifiers are so profound that, from Berlin's perspective, the contemporary world is characterized more by geopolitical disorder than institutional order, rendering strategic adaptation imperative. According to neoclassical realist logic, these systemic modifiers have reshaped domestic variables—such as leadership perceptions, strategic culture, state-society relations, and institutional frameworks—fostering a collective consensus that Germany has reached a historic turning point, or Zeitenwende. This realization has necessitated a more autonomous and assertive agency in shaping the emerging global order, driving Germany's transition from a mere executor of systemic rules to an active architect of international security. Empirically, this perception has transformed Germany's foreign policy outputs and redefined its foundational pillars, encompassing a restructuring of transatlantic relations, a re-evaluation of European integration, the definitive abandonment of traditional Ostpolitik, and the calculated assumption of a role as a conventional military power.
Conclusion: This article provides a cogent explanation of the profound structural shifts in German foreign policy in response to international systemic shocks during the 2014–2025 period. The research findings indicate that sustained external pressures have elevated the discourse surrounding Germany's transformation into a "normal" power—one that embraces geopolitical leadership and international defense responsibilities commensurate with its economic stature—from a contested debate among political parties, elites, and social groups into an executable policy reality. With the institutionalization of the Zeitenwende, Berlin has embarked on a definitive path toward becoming a modern power equipped with a military capability optimized for robust conventional deterrence.
Keywords: Germany, Foreign Policy, Neoclassical Realism, Russia, United States, Europe
Keywords
Germany
Foreign Policy
Neoclassical Realism
Russia
United States
 
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