The impact of US-China competition in the Middle East region on Iran's national security (2010-2022)

Extended Abstract
Introduction
The geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East have always been influenced by the competition among global powers, particularly the United States and China. This study aims to analyze how the US-China rivalry from 2010 to 2022 has impacted Iran's national security. The region's strategic significance and its vast energy resources make it a focal point for these powers, each seeking to expand their influence. Iran, as a key player in the Middle East, finds its security and political landscape significantly affected by this rivalry. The research hypothesizes that the competition between the US and China affects Iran's national security in three main domains: military/security, political, and economic, with both positive and negative impacts.
Methods
This research adopts an explanatory method, relying on extensive library and documentary data to dissect the multi-faceted impacts of US-China competition on Iran's national security. The study involves a thorough review of historical and contemporary sources to establish a comprehensive understanding of the geopolitical strategies employed by the US and China in the Middle East and their repercussions on Iran. The analysis is structured to address the competition in the specified domains, offering a detailed examination of each domain to discern the dual effects on Iran's security framework.
Results and Discussion
The findings reveal a complex interplay of influences stemming from the US-China rivalry. In the military/security domain, the competition has generally been detrimental to Iran's national security. Increased US military presence and alliances in the region pose direct threats to Iran, while China's military engagements offer limited but notable strategic support to Iran, such as joint military maneuvers and arms sales. However, China's broader military relations with other regional actors like Saudi Arabia and Israel introduce significant security dilemmas for Iran. Economically, the US's efforts to isolate Iran through sanctions have been countered to some extent by China's continued economic engagements with Iran, including the 25-year cooperation agreement. Nevertheless, China's extensive economic ties with Iran's regional rivals diminish these benefits and perpetuate the economic vulnerabilities due to continued and even reinforced US sanctions. Politically, the situation is somewhat more favorable for Iran. China's refusal to align with US policies aimed at isolating Iran, such as opposing additional sanctions in the United Nations, provides Iran with crucial diplomatic support. Additionally, China's support for the Assad regime in Syria aligns with Iran's strategic interests in the region, reinforcing Iran's influence in the Levant. However, the growing US-Arab-Israeli rapprochement, facilitated by the Abraham Accords, and the US's emphasis on human rights issues against Iran complicate Iran's geopolitical stance.
Conclusions
The US-China competition in the Middle East significantly impacts Iran's national security. Militarily and economically, the rivalry presents more threats than opportunities, primarily due to US actions aimed at containing Iran and China's balanced approach to regional partnerships. Politically, however, the competition offers Iran some leverage, as China's opposition to US-led initiatives provides Iran with critical support. Understanding these dynamics is essential for Iran to navigate its foreign policy and security strategies effectively amidst the ongoing great power rivalry. This research underscores the need for a nuanced approach in analyzing the impacts of global geopolitical competitions on regional actors like Iran, highlighting the dual nature of these influences across different domains.