تغییرات‌اقلیمی و امنیت بین‌الملل در قرن 21

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسنده

گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

10.29252/piaj.2022.225845.1202

چکیده

تغییرات‌اقلیمی تهدید امنیتی عینی، جهانی، بدون عامل و غیردولتی است که با تهدیدهای سنتی تفاوت بنیادی دارد. در پاسخ به این پرسش که تغییرات‌اقلیمی چه تأثیراتی بر امنیت در سطح بین‌المللی دارد؟ فرضیه تحقیق این بود که تغییرات‌اقلیمی، مفهوم امنیت را متحول کرده و خطرها و تهدیدهای امنیتی بیشتر و بزرگ‌تری ایجاد کرده است. با افزایش پیامدهای آن، امنیت در سطح جهانی و در ابعاد مختلف امنیت سیاسی، اجتماعی، اقتصادی و انسانی، بیش از پیش به خطر خواهد افتاد. براساس یافته‌های تحقیق باید گفت که در اثر تغییرات‌اقلیمی امروزه هیچ جای امنی در دنیا وجود ندارد و اشکال مختلف امنیت در سطح فردی، ملی و بین‌المللی با چالش و تهدید مواجه است. تغییرات‌اقلیمی تهدیدهای امنیتی موجود را تشدید و خطرناک‌تر کرده و جنبه‌های جدید ناامنی مانند ناامنی غذایی یا محیطی انسان‌های بیشتری را تهدید می‌کند. در نتیجه، هیچ توافق حقوقی محدود یا اقدامات اقلیمی یک یا چند کشور نمی‌تواند اثرات آن را از بین برد و همکاری‌های جهانی دولتی و مردمی برای مقابله با آن ضروری است. تحقیق حاضر با بهره‌گیری از نظریه امنیتی مکتب کپنهاک، به ویژه آرای باری بوزان به شیوه تبیینی نوشته شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Climate Change and International Security in the 21st Century

نویسنده [English]

  • Moslem Karamzadi
Department of Political Science, Payame Noor University, Tehran- Iran
چکیده [English]

      Climate Change is an Objective, Global, Actor-Less and non-Governmental Security Threat that is Fundamentally Different from Past Threats. The Main Research Question was what are the Effects of Climate Change on International Security? Our Hypothesis was that Climate Change has Transformed the Concept of Security, Created More and Bigger Security Risks and Threats, and with the Increase of its Consequences, Security at the Global Level and in Different Dimensions of Political, Social, Economic and Human Security is more than ever. Based on the Findings, It should be Said that due to Climate Change, there is no Safe Place in the World Today, and Various Forms of Security at the Individual, National and International Levels are Facing Challenges and Threats. Climate Changes Intensify Existing Security Threats and Make them more Dangerous, and New Aspects of Insecurity, such as Food or Environmental Insecurity, Threaten more People. Consequently, no Limited Legal Agreement or Climate Action of One or Few Countries can Eliminate its Effects, and Global Governmental and Public Cooperation is Essential. The Current Research is Written in an Explanatory Way, Using the Security Theory of the Copenhagen School, Especially the Opinions of Barry Buzan.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Security
  • International Security
  • Environmental Security
  • Climate Change
  • Copenhagen School

مراجع

  • منابع

    • بوزان، باری (1378)، مردم، دولت‌ها و هراس، ترجمه پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی، تهران، انتشارات پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
    • بوزان، باری(1380)، «تحول در مفهوم امنیت بین‌المللی: جامعه بین‌المللی و امنیت بین‌المللی»، ترجمه کابک خبیری، فرهنگ اندیشه، سال اول پاییز و زمستان، شماره 3 و 4.
    • نصری، قدیر (1390)، «تأملی نظری در یافته‌ها و دشواری‌های باری بوزان در بررسی امنیت»، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی، سال چهاردهم، شماره 4، زمستان، شماره مسلسل 54،صص134-105.
    • یزدان‌فام، محمود (1386)، «دگرگونی در نظریه‌ها و مفهوم امنیت بین‌المللی»، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی، دوره 10، شماره 38،شماره پیاپی 38، زمستان، صص 750-725.
    • Boin, Arjen. Martin lodge (2016), ‘’Designing resilient institutions for transboundary crisis management: a time for public administration’’, public administration vol. 94, no. 2, Pages 289–298.
    • Bowen, Alex. Sarah Cochrane. Samuel Fankhauser (2012), ‘’Climate change, adaptation and economic growth’’, Climatic Change, vol. 113, issue 2, 95-106.
    • Busby ,Joshua , Morgan Bazilian, Florian Krampe (2021), The US needs partners to tackle the security risks of climate change, World Economic Forum. Accessed at: 2021/8/20, Available in: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/03/climate-change-security-us-un
    • Buzan, Barry (2020), ‘’the transformation of global international society and the security agenda Interview with Professor Barry Buzan’’, security and Defense Quarterly, 3/2020 vol. 30, Accessed at: 2021/8/30, available in:https://securityandefence.pl/
    • Barry. Lene Hansen (2009), The Evolution of International Security studies, New York, Cambridge University Press
    • Collier, Paul et al. (2003), Breaking the Conflict Trap (Civil War and Development), Washington, Co publication Of World Bank and Oxford University Press.
    • Conversi, Daniele (2020), “’the Ultimate Challenge: Nationalism and Climate Change’’, Nationalities Papers, 48: 4, Pages, 625–636.
    • Dauvergne, Dauvergne (2012), Handbook of Global Environmental Politics, Second Edition, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
    • Falkner, Robert. Barry Buzan (2019), ‘’the emergence of environmental stewardship as a primary institution of global international society’’, European Journal of International Relations 2019, Vol. 25(1), Pages, 131–155
    • Harris, Paul G (2014), Routledge Handbook of Global Environmental Politics, New York and Oxon, Rutledge.
    • Hsiang, Solomon M. Kyle C. Meng. Mark A. Cane (2011), ‘’Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate, Nature,Volume 476, pages’, 438–441
    • Institute for Economics & Peace (2021), Ecological Threat Report 2021: Understanding Ecological Threats, Resilience and Peace, Sydney, October 2021, accessed 2021/11/9 Available in: http://visionofhumanity.org/resources
    • IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press.
    • IPCC, 2022: Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation,and Vulnerability, Switzerland, Cambridge University Press.
    • Gunter Brauch, Hans (2011), Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks, Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, Springer.
    • Lewis, Kirsty H. Timothy M. Lenton (2015), ‘’Knowledge problems in climate change and security research’’, WIREs Clim Change, Volume 6,Issue 4, July/August, Pages,383–399.
    • Lieberman, Bruce (2019), a brief introduction to climate change and national security, accessed at: 2021/10/20 available in: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/a-brief-introduction-to-climate-change-and-national-security/
    • Lippert, Tyler H (2016), NATO, Climate Change, and International Security A Risk Governance Approach, Santa Monica, Calif, RAND Corporation.
    • Martin, Craig (2020), ‘’Atmospheric Intervention? The Climate Change Crisis and the Jus ad Bellum Regime’’, Columbia Journal of Environmental Law, Vol. 45, No. 2, Pages, 331-417.
    • Matthew, Richard (2014), ‘’Integrating climate change into peace building’’, Climatic Change volume123, pages 83–93.
    • National Intelligence Estimate (2021), Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040, accessed at: 2021/10/22 available in:

    https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIE_Climate_Change_and_National_Security.pdf

    • Nevitt, Mark, (2021), ‘’Is Climate Change a Threat to International Peace and Security?’’, Michigan Journal of International Law, Volume 42, Issue 3, Pages, 527-579.
    • Obradovich, Nick (2016), ‘’Climate change may speed democratic turnover’’, Climatic Change, 140, Pages, 135–147.
    • Pattberg, Philipp H. Fariborz Zelli (2015), Encyclopedia of Governance and Politics Global Environmental, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
    • Scott, Daniel. C. Michael Hall. Stefan Gössling (2019), ‘’Global tourism vulnerability to climate change’’, Annals of Tourism Research, 77, Pages, 49–61.
    • r et al (2008), Climate Change as a Security Risk, German edition published in 2007, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York. Springer-Verlag.
    • Shimada, Go (2022). "The Impact of Climate-Change-Related Disasters on Africa’s Economic Growth, Agriculture, and Conflicts," International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19, No. 1: 467.Pages,1-15.
    • United Nations (1992), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Accessed at 2021,7,15, Available In: Fccc/Informal/84 Ge.05-62220 (E) 200705, https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf.
    • ORG (2021), Cop26: Together for Our Planet, accessed 2022/01/02, Available at: https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cop26.

    www.Unep.Org  (2021) , Climate change and security risks, accessed  atL2021,7,27, available in:

    https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/disasters-conflicts/what-we-do/risk-reduction/climate-change-and-security-risks

    • Walton, Calder. Sean Power (2021), Climate Change, Intelligence, and Global Security, Belfer Center, spring 2021 Ewsletter, Accessed at 2021/08/25, available in:

    https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/report-climate-change-intelligence-and-global-security.

    • World Economic Forum (2021), The Global Risks Report 2021, published by the World Economic Forum, Accessed at: 2021, 7, 27, Available at: http://wef.ch/risks2021

    WWW.UNEP.ORG, (2021), Climate change and security risks, Accessed at: 2021, 7, 27. Available in:         https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/disasters-conflicts/what-we-do/risk-reduction/climate-change-and-security-risks

    • crisisgroup.org, 2021, Climate Change and Conflict, Accessed at: 2021/8/22, available in: https://www.crisisgroup.org/future-conflict/climate
    • WHO, (2021), COP26 special report on climate change and health: the health argument for climate action. Geneva: World Health Organization.
    • WMO(2021), Atlas of Mortalityand Economic Lossesfrom Weather, Climateand Water, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2019),World Meteorological Organization,

    www.theguardian.com /2022/jul/18, Humanity faces ‘collective suicide’ over climate crisis, warns UN chief, Accessed at: 2022, 7, 25. Available in: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/18/humanity-faces-collective-suicide-over-climate-crisis-warns-un-chief

    politico.eu, 2022/7/24, Europe’s not ready for a hotter world, Accessed at: 2022, 7, 25. Available in: https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-climate-change-global-warming-heat-wave-adaptation

    • Zhao, Qi (2021), ‘’Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019’’, Lancet Planet Health, 2021, 5: Pages, 415–25.

      منابع

      • بوزان، باری (1378)، مردم، دولت‌ها و هراس، ترجمه پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی، تهران، انتشارات پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
      • بوزان، باری(1380)، «تحول در مفهوم امنیت بین‌المللی: جامعه بین‌المللی و امنیت بین‌المللی»، ترجمه کابک خبیری، فرهنگ اندیشه، سال اول پاییز و زمستان، شماره 3 و 4.
      • نصری، قدیر (1390)، «تأملی نظری در یافته‌ها و دشواری‌های باری بوزان در بررسی امنیت»، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی، سال چهاردهم، شماره 4، زمستان، شماره مسلسل 54،صص134-105.
      • یزدان‌فام، محمود (1386)، «دگرگونی در نظریه‌ها و مفهوم امنیت بین‌المللی»، فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی، دوره 10، شماره 38،شماره پیاپی 38، زمستان، صص 750-725.
      • Boin, Arjen. Martin lodge (2016), ‘’Designing resilient institutions for transboundary crisis management: a time for public administration’’, public administration vol. 94, no. 2, Pages 289–298.
      • Bowen, Alex. Sarah Cochrane. Samuel Fankhauser (2012), ‘’Climate change, adaptation and economic growth’’, Climatic Change, vol. 113, issue 2, 95-106.
      • Busby ,Joshua , Morgan Bazilian, Florian Krampe (2021), The US needs partners to tackle the security risks of climate change, World Economic Forum. Accessed at: 2021/8/20, Available in: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/03/climate-change-security-us-un
      • Buzan, Barry (2020), ‘’the transformation of global international society and the security agenda Interview with Professor Barry Buzan’’, security and Defense Quarterly, 3/2020 vol. 30, Accessed at: 2021/8/30, available in:https://securityandefence.pl/
      • Barry. Lene Hansen (2009), The Evolution of International Security studies, New York, Cambridge University Press
      • Collier, Paul et al. (2003), Breaking the Conflict Trap (Civil War and Development), Washington, Co publication Of World Bank and Oxford University Press.
      • Conversi, Daniele (2020), “’the Ultimate Challenge: Nationalism and Climate Change’’, Nationalities Papers, 48: 4, Pages, 625–636.
      • Dauvergne, Dauvergne (2012), Handbook of Global Environmental Politics, Second Edition, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
      • Falkner, Robert. Barry Buzan (2019), ‘’the emergence of environmental stewardship as a primary institution of global international society’’, European Journal of International Relations 2019, Vol. 25(1), Pages, 131–155
      • Harris, Paul G (2014), Routledge Handbook of Global Environmental Politics, New York and Oxon, Rutledge.
      • Hsiang, Solomon M. Kyle C. Meng. Mark A. Cane (2011), ‘’Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate, Nature,Volume 476, pages’, 438–441
      • Institute for Economics & Peace (2021), Ecological Threat Report 2021: Understanding Ecological Threats, Resilience and Peace, Sydney, October 2021, accessed 2021/11/9 Available in: http://visionofhumanity.org/resources
      • IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press.
      • IPCC, 2022: Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation,and Vulnerability, Switzerland, Cambridge University Press.
      • Gunter Brauch, Hans (2011), Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks, Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, Springer.
      • Lewis, Kirsty H. Timothy M. Lenton (2015), ‘’Knowledge problems in climate change and security research’’, WIREs Clim Change, Volume 6,Issue 4, July/August, Pages,383–399.
      • Lieberman, Bruce (2019), a brief introduction to climate change and national security, accessed at: 2021/10/20 available in: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/a-brief-introduction-to-climate-change-and-national-security/
      • Lippert, Tyler H (2016), NATO, Climate Change, and International Security A Risk Governance Approach, Santa Monica, Calif, RAND Corporation.
      • Martin, Craig (2020), ‘’Atmospheric Intervention? The Climate Change Crisis and the Jus ad Bellum Regime’’, Columbia Journal of Environmental Law, Vol. 45, No. 2, Pages, 331-417.
      • Matthew, Richard (2014), ‘’Integrating climate change into peace building’’, Climatic Change volume123, pages 83–93.
      • National Intelligence Estimate (2021), Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040, accessed at: 2021/10/22 available in:

      https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIE_Climate_Change_and_National_Security.pdf

      • Nevitt, Mark, (2021), ‘’Is Climate Change a Threat to International Peace and Security?’’, Michigan Journal of International Law, Volume 42, Issue 3, Pages, 527-579.
      • Obradovich, Nick (2016), ‘’Climate change may speed democratic turnover’’, Climatic Change, 140, Pages, 135–147.
      • Pattberg, Philipp H. Fariborz Zelli (2015), Encyclopedia of Governance and Politics Global Environmental, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
      • Scott, Daniel. C. Michael Hall. Stefan Gössling (2019), ‘’Global tourism vulnerability to climate change’’, Annals of Tourism Research, 77, Pages, 49–61.
      • r et al (2008), Climate Change as a Security Risk, German edition published in 2007, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York. Springer-Verlag.
      • Shimada, Go (2022). "The Impact of Climate-Change-Related Disasters on Africa’s Economic Growth, Agriculture, and Conflicts," International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19, No. 1: 467.Pages,1-15.
      • United Nations (1992), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Accessed at 2021,7,15, Available In: Fccc/Informal/84 Ge.05-62220 (E) 200705, https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf.
      • ORG (2021), Cop26: Together for Our Planet, accessed 2022/01/02, Available at: https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cop26.

      www.Unep.Org  (2021) , Climate change and security risks, accessed  atL2021,7,27, available in:

      https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/disasters-conflicts/what-we-do/risk-reduction/climate-change-and-security-risks

      • Walton, Calder. Sean Power (2021), Climate Change, Intelligence, and Global Security, Belfer Center, spring 2021 Ewsletter, Accessed at 2021/08/25, available in:

      https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/report-climate-change-intelligence-and-global-security.

      • World Economic Forum (2021), The Global Risks Report 2021, published by the World Economic Forum, Accessed at: 2021, 7, 27, Available at: http://wef.ch/risks2021

      WWW.UNEP.ORG, (2021), Climate change and security risks, Accessed at: 2021, 7, 27. Available in:         https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/disasters-conflicts/what-we-do/risk-reduction/climate-change-and-security-risks

      • crisisgroup.org, 2021, Climate Change and Conflict, Accessed at: 2021/8/22, available in: https://www.crisisgroup.org/future-conflict/climate
      • WHO, (2021), COP26 special report on climate change and health: the health argument for climate action. Geneva: World Health Organization.
      • WMO(2021), Atlas of Mortalityand Economic Lossesfrom Weather, Climateand Water, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2019),World Meteorological Organization,

      www.theguardian.com /2022/jul/18, Humanity faces ‘collective suicide’ over climate crisis, warns UN chief, Accessed at: 2022, 7, 25. Available in: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/18/humanity-faces-collective-suicide-over-climate-crisis-warns-un-chief

      politico.eu, 2022/7/24, Europe’s not ready for a hotter world, Accessed at: 2022, 7, 25. Available in: https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-climate-change-global-warming-heat-wave-adaptation

      • Zhao, Qi (2021), ‘’Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019’’, Lancet Planet Health, 2021, 5: Pages, 415–25.

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