جایگاه ایران در بازی ژئوپلیتیک روسیه: موازنه ناپایدار در شرائط دشوار

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 مدرس مدعو گروه روابط بین الملل، دانشکده حقوق و الهیات، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان.

2 استاد گروه مطالعات منطقه ای، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

مقدمه: پس از فروپاشی شوروی، نقش ایران در سیاست خارجی روسیه محدود شد. با بازگشت پوتین در سال 2012-2013 و تحولات قابل توجه در خاورمیانه، روابط دو طرف تا زمان جنگ اوکراین در سال 2022 تقویت شد. پس از این بحران، این همکاری بر روی موضوعات مرتبط با این صحنه متمرکز شد. با سقوط اسد جدی ترین موضوع همکاری دو کشور در زمینه مسائل ژئوپلیتیک منطقه به پایان رسیده و درک صحیح از موقعیت ژئوپلیتیکی ایران در سیاست روسیه در سطح منطقه و جهان به موضوعی مهم تبدیل شده است. سوال اصلی این است که چگونه نگرش روسیه در جریان بحران اوکراین نسبت به ایران تغییر کرده است؟ فرضیه این است که از دیدگاه کرملین، ایران پیرو مسکو در معادلات بین المللی، شریک در قلمرو اوراسیا، حاشیه در روسکی میر و عامل متعادل کننده در خاورمیانه است.

روش: روش‌شناسی تحلیل کیفی متغیرهای فرضیه اصلی است. تحولات روابط ایران و روسیه و سیاست خارجی روسیه در دهه گذشته پس از بحران سوریه در 2011 و بحران اوکراین در 2014 با استفاده از متغیرهای برگرفته از مبانی نظری و مقایسه آن‌ها با متغیرهای فرضیه اصلی بررسی شده است. چهار موضع سیاسی این کشور شامل نظام بین‌الملل، نظام اوراسیا، نظام روسکی میر و نظام منطقه‌ای غرب آسیا از مواضع اصلی سیاست روسیه خواهد بود. با استفاده از این چهار سطح، جایگاه ایران در هر یک از آن‌ها را از منظر روسیه مورد بحث قرار می‌دهیم و دلایل لازم برای تحلیل فرضیه اصلی را ارائه می‌کنیم. یافته‌های مکتب تحلیل سیاست خارجی به عنوان چارچوبی نظری برای بحث‌های آن‌ها مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. از این رو، عوامل تعیین‌کننده موقعیت ژئوپلیتیکی کشورها بیشتر به سطح داخلی مربوط می‌شود و موضوعاتی مانند فرآیند تصمیم‌گیری، نخبگان سیاسی، احزاب و تحولات کشور و نیز نهادها، ساختارها، ایدئولوژی، فرهنگ سیاسی و استراتژیک به شناخت جایگاه بازیگران خارجی کمک می‌کنند.

یافته‌ها: از سال 2014، بازنگری قابل توجهی در سیاست بین‌المللی و منطقه‌ای روسیه صورت گرفته است که در چهار سطح بین‌المللی، منطقه‌ای، اوراسیا، جهان روسیه و خاورمیانه قابل درک است. این تحول در بازتعریف موقعیت ایران نیز تاثیر بسزایی داشته است. از این رو ایران در چارچوب مفاهیمی چون اکثریت جهانی، جنوب جهانی و بریکس اهمیت ویژه‌ای یافته است. بحث اصلی این است که چگونگی درک موقعیت ایران در هر یک از این چهار موقعیت ژئوپلیتیکی روسیه بر اساس اولویت‌های روسیه و با توجه به تحولات سیاست منطقه‌ای و جهانی آن تعیین شده است.

نتیجه‌گیری: ایران با توجه به قدرتی که در معادلات بین‌المللی دارد، پیرو مسکو است و نمی‌توان اهمیت این کشور را در سطح یا فراتر از همتایان بزرگ جهانی خود تصور کرد. روسیه در خصوص موقعیت ایران در اوراسیا، موضع کم و بیش برابری برای ایران قائل است. در معادلات روسکی میر نقش ایران اهمیت حاشیه‌ای دارد، اما در غرب آسیا با توجه به عملکرد روسیه، ایران در ایجاد تعادل در چارچوب بازی ژئوپلیتیک روسیه اهمیت دارد. بر اساس این واقعیت‌های ژئوپلیتیکی است که در درک توافق جامع بیست ساله همکاری راهبردی ایران و روسیه در ژانویه 2025 نه افراط و نه تفریط کرد و واقعیت‌های این روابط را بر اساس منطق و اولویت‌های موقعیت ژئوپلیتیکی روسیه در نظر گرفت، زیرا هر سندی فراتر از متن توافق‌نامه، بر اساس موقعیت ژئوپلیتیکی شکل می‌گیرد که این موقعیت کمتر متاثر از تحولات جاری تغییر می‌یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Iran's Position in Russia's Geopolitical Game: Unstable Balance in Difficult Conditions

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohammadjavad Soltani gishini 1
  • jahangir karami 2
1 International Relations Lecturer, faculty of law and theology, shahid bahonar university, Kerman, Iran.
2 professor of regional studies department, law and political science faculty, Tehran university, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: after the Soviet collapse, Iran’s role was limited in Russia’s foreign policy. Returning Putin in 2012-2013 and significant developments in the Middle East, relations between the two enhanced till the Ukraine war in 2022. After this crisis, this cooperation focused on issues related to this scene. With the fall of Assad, the most earnest issue of cooperation between the two countries on regional geopolitical issues has ended, and a correct understanding of Iran's geopolitical position in Russian politics at the regional and global levels has become an important issue. The main question is how the attitude of Russia has shifted during the Ukraine crisis, towards Iran? The hypothesis is that from the Kremlin's perspective, Iran is a follower of Moscow in international equations, a partner in the Eurasian territory, a fringe in the Russky Mir, and a balancing factor in the Middle East.

Method: The methodology is a qualitative analysis of the variables of the main hypothesis. The developments in Iran-Russia relations and Russian foreign policy in the past decade reviewed, since the Syrian crisis in 2011 and Ukraine crisis in 2014, using variables derived from theoretical foundations and comparing them with the variables of the main hypothesis. Four policy positions of this country consist of the international system, the Eurasian system, the Russky Mir military, and the West Asian regional system will be considered as the main positions of Russian policy. Using these four levels, we will discuss Iran's position in each of them from the perspective of Russia and present the necessary arguments for analyzing the main hypothesis. The findings of the school of foreign policy analysis have been utilized as a theoretical framework for their discussions. Thereby, the factors determining the geopolitical position of countries are more concerned with the domestic level, and issues such as the decision-making process, political elites, parties and movements of the country, as well as institutions, structures, ideology, political and strategic culture contribute to understand the position of foreign actors.

Result and discussion:. Since 2014, there has been a significant revision of Russia's international and regional policy, understood at four levels: international, regional, Eurasian, Russian world and Middle East. This development has also had a significant impact on redefining Iran's position. Therefore, Iran has gained special importance within the framework of concepts such as the global majority, the global south and the BRICS. The main argument is that how Iran's position has been understood in each of these four geopolitical situations of Russia has been determined based on the priorities of the Russia and due to developments in its regional and global policy.

Conclusion: Iran is a follower of Moscow, given its power in international equations, and the importance of this country cannot be imagined to be at the level or beyond its major global counterparts. Regarding Iran's position in the Eurasian region, it accords it a more or less equal position. In the Russky-Mir equations, Iran's role is of marginal importance, but in West Asia, considering the performance of Russia, Iran is important in balancing within the framework of the Russian geopolitical game. it is based on these geopolitical realities that one should neither go to extremes nor be too extreme in understanding the comprehensive agreement on twenty-year strategic cooperation between Iran and Russia in January 2025, and consider the realities of these relations based on the logic and priorities of Russia's geopolitical situation, because any document beyond the text of the agreement is formed on the basis and context of the geopolitical situation that is less likely to change in the course of daily developments.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Iran
  • Russia
  • Eurasia
  • Middle East
  • Geopolitics

 

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