جنگ ژئواکونومیک آمریکا و چین و تأثیر آن بر نظم اقتصاد بین‌الملل

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس تهران

2 - دانشیار روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت‌ مدرس تهران

10.48308/piaj.2024.233768.1460

چکیده

جنگ ژئواکونومیک به رقابت آمریکا و چین در چهارچوب طرح‌های ابتکاری زیرساختی اشاره دارد که به خاطر ابعاد ژئوپلیتیک و تعیین‌کننده آن جنبه تقابلی پیداکرده است. ازنظر آمریکا و غرب ابتکار کمربند و راه چین یک خیزش تهاجمی بود که موفقیت آن می‌توانست برتری آن‌ها در نظم اقتصادی بین‌الملل را با چالش روبرو کند؛ بنابراین طرح‌های زیرساختی بزرگی را در دستور کار قراردادند تا گسترش نفوذ چین را کنترل کنند. بر همین مبنا در پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از روش تحلیلی – تبیینی و با استفاده از منابع مکتوب و اینترنتی به دنبال پاسخ به این سؤال هستیم که «جنگ ژئواکونومیک آمریکا و چین چه تأثیری بر نظم اقتصادی بین‌المللی خواهد گذاشت؟» فرضیه مطرح‌شده بیان می‌دارد که «باوجوداینکه ابتکار کمربند و راه قدرت اقتصادی و تجاری چین و نفوذ اقتصادی این کشور را گسترش داده؛ ولی با توجه به برتری فعلی آمریکا و غرب و توان بازدارندگی طرح‌های ابتکاری ارائه‌شده از سوی آن‌ها، درنهایت این جنگ ژئواکونومیک باعث افول نظم بین‌الملل لیبرال نشده است». بررسی‌ها نشان می‌دهد با توجه به اهداف و اهمیت طرح‌های ابتکاری ارائه‌شده توسط آمریکا و غرب و تسلط آن‌ها بر اقتصاد و تکنولوژی جهانی و نیز مشکلات ساختاری چین و اختلاف با همسایگان درنهایت غرب برتری خود را در نظم اقتصاد بین‌الملل حفظ خواهد کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The US-China geo-economic war and its impact on the international economic order

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Hamzeh Salehi 1
  • Seyed Masoud Mousavi Shafaee 2
1 PhD student of International Relations, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of International Relations, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The geo-economic rivalry between the United States and China revolves around the framework of infrastructure initiatives, driven by their geopolitical significance. From the perspective of the United States and the West, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was seen as an aggressive move that could potentially challenge their dominance in the international economic order. Consequently, they prioritized significant infrastructure projects to control China's expanding influence. In this current study, we seek to answer the question, "What impact will the U.S.-China geo-economic rivalry have on the international economic order?" The hypothesis posits that, "Despite the economic and trade power expansion facilitated by the Belt and Road Initiative and China's economic penetration, the current superiority of the United States and the West, along with their capacity for restraint in response to proposed initiatives, ultimately prevents the decline of the liberal international order." Analysis, using an analytical-explanatory approach and drawing from written and online sources, suggests that given the objectives and significance of the initiatives proposed by the United States and the West, as well as their dominance in the global economy and technology, and considering China's structural challenges and differences with its neighbors, the West will ultimately maintain its dominance in the international economic order.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • geo-economic war
  • America
  • China
  • international economic order
 

منابع

- دهشیار، حسین، پورباقر، مهدی (1402)؛ «رقابت راهبردی آمریکا و چین در طرح زیرساختی، ساخت جهانی بهتر و کمربند-راه»، پژوهش‌های روابط بین‌الملل، دوره سیزدهم، شماره 48، صص 50-7.
- رئیسی‌نژاد، آرش (1401)، ایران راه ابریشم نوین- از ژئوپلیتیک راه تا دیپلماسی راه، تهران، انتشارات دانشگاه تهران.
- Aboudouh, Ahmed. (2023). An India–Middle East–Europe corridor is unlikely to boost Saudi–Israel normalization, at: https://www.chathamhouse.org.
- Amador, J. & Cabral, S. (2016). Global value chains: A survey of drivers and measures. Journal of Economic Surveys, 30(2), 278-301.
- Aris, S. (2016) One Belt, One Road: China’s Vision of “Connectivity”. CSS Analyses in Security Policy, 195, 1-4.
- asiasociety.org, (2020). Weaponizing the Belt and Road Initiative. B2n.ir/r79435.
- Bansal, R. & Singh, S. (2021). China’s Digital Yuan: An Alternative to the Dollar-Dominated Financial System. Working paper. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/files/202108-Bansal_Singh_-_Chinas_Digital_Yuan. pdf.
- Bezek, Ian.(2023). De-dollarization: What Happens if the Dollar Loses Reserve Status? at: https://money.usnews.com.
- Blackwill, R. D. & Harris, J. M. (2016). War by other means: Geoeconomics and statecraft. Harvard University Press.
- Blyth, M. (Ed). (2009). Routledge handbook of international political economy (IPE): IPE as a global conversation. Routledge.
- Brînză, A. (2018). Japan’s belt and road balancing act. The Diplomat. Available online: B2n.ir/s05746.
- Bruno, V. & Shin, H. S. (2019 - 2023). Dollar exchange rate as a credit supply factor–evidence from firm-level exports.
- Bushong, J. DeNap, K. & Yang, T. (2018). Understanding and Responding to China's Belt and Road Initiative: Developing an American Policy Response. Washington Journal of Modern China, 14.‏
- Cai, P. (2017). Understanding China’s belt and road initiative.
- commission.europa.eu. (2023). Global Gateway. ATB2n.ir/j16651.
- D' Ambrogio, E. (2021). The Quad: An emerging multilateral security framework of democracies in the Indo-Pacific region.
- European Commission. (d.n). Global Gateway overview. B2n.ir/e29029.
- Finer, J. (2023). G20 Summit: India-Middle East-Europe mega corridor deal announced. At: B2n.ir/r36934.
- FORKAST. NEWS. (2021). The digital yuan’s de-dollarization: Why the Federal Reserve and other major central banks are likely to speed up development of retail CBDCs. https://forkast. news/digital-yuans-de-dollarization/.
- Forough, M. (2019). Intervention with Chinese characteristics: the Belt and Road Initiative reconfiguring (Afro-) Eurasian geo-economics. Conflict, Security & Development, 19(3), 275-281.
- Friedman, M. (1962). Capitalism and freedom. University of Chicago press.
- Gelpern, A. Horn, S. Morris, S. Parks, B. & Trebesch, C. (2022). How China lends: A rare look into 100 debt contracts with foreign governments. Economic Policy, eiac054.
- Haidar. Suhasini. (2024). After five months of pause due to the Israel-Gaza war, government hopes to move on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. At: B2n.ir/g52716.
- Hansbrough, J. V.(d.n). From the blue dot network to the blue dot marketplace: A way to cooperate in strategic.
- Harris, T. (2019). ‘Quality Infrastructure’: Japan’s Robust Challenge to China’s Belt and Road. War on the Rocks, 9.
- Harrison, K. & Boyd, T. (2018). Liberalism. In Understanding political ideas and movements (pp. 195-213). Manchester University Press.
- Hayes, Adam (2021). Clearing House Interbank Payments System (CHIPS), B2n.ir/m81194.
- Healy, D. S. C. (2022). One vision, three plans: Build Back Better World & G7 Global Infrastructure initiatives.
- Hillman, J. Sacks, D. Lew, J. J. & Roughead, G. (2021). China's Belt and Road: Implications for the United States. New York: Council on Foreign Relations.
- Hobhouse, L. T. (1994). Hobhouse: Liberalism and Other Writings. Cambridge University Press.
- Ikenberry, G. J. (2018). The end of liberal international order? International Affairs, 94(1), 7-23.
- Jaeger, B. C. & Brites, P. V. P. (2020). Geoeconomics in the light of International Political Economy: a theoretical discussion. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 40, 22-36.
- jbic.go.jp.(d.n). Infrastructure, What is "Quality Infrastructure"? B2n.ir/h02274.
- Jett. Jennifer. (2023). China’s new map outrages its neighbors. At: B2n.ir/r18178.
- Lamba, Bikram. (2022). AUKUS Agreement has Strategic Significance for the Indo-Pacific, but what about India? PENSAMIENTO PROPIO.
- Lindley, D. (2022). Assessing Chinas Motives: How the Belt and Road Initiative Threats US Interest. Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, 4(4), 72-90.‏
- Magnusson, L. (2019). Mercantilism. In The Elgar Companion to John Maynard Keynes (pp. 296-301). Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Masina, P. (2022). Challenging the belt and road initiative: The American and European alternatives. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Paper No. PP_2022_09.
- Mattlin, M. & Wigell, M. (2016). Geoeconomics in the context of restive regional powers. Asia Europe Journal, 14, 125-134.
- Mazarr, M. J. Priebe, M. Radin, A. & Stuth, C. A. (2016). Understanding the Current International Order:[Building a Sustainable International Order Series]. Rand Corporation.
- Murphy. Erin L. (2023). Blue Dot Network Gains Momentum. AT: https://www.csis.org/analysis/blue-dot-network-gains-momentum.
- Nye, J. S. (2011). The future of power. Public Affairs.
- oecd.org. (2022). The Blue Dot Network: A proposal for a global certification framework for quality infrastructure investment. At: https://www.oecd.org/daf/blue-dot-network-proposal-certification.pdf.
- Panda, J. P. (2022). EU's global gateway strategy and building a global consensus vis-a-vis BRI (No. 2022-10). Ordnungspolitische Diskurse.
- Perrigo, B. (2020). Bowing to US pressure, UK bans 5G equipment from China’s Huawei over security concerns. Time.at: https://time. com/5866643/uk-huawei-5g-ban.
- Ranjan Kala, R. (2023). BL Explainer: How does India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor compare with Belt & Road Initiative, at: B2n.ir/m91772.
- Ray, H. P. (2019). ‘Project Mausam’. India’s Transnational Initiative: Revisiting UNESCO’s World Heritage Convention. In Travelling pasts: The politics of cultural heritage in the Indian Ocean world (pp. 39-61). Brill.
- Roberts, A. Moraes, H. C. & Ferguson, V. (2018). The geoeconomic world order. Lawfare blog, 19.
- Sarker, M. N. I. Hossin, M. A. Yin, X. & Sarkar, M. K. (2018). One belt one road initiative of China: implication for future of global development. Modern Economy, 9(4), 623-638.
- Savoy, Conor. M & Staguhn, Janina. (2022). Global Development in an Era of Great Power Competition, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.
- Schneider-Petsinger, M. (2016). Geoeconomics explained. Chatham House, 9.
- Seethi, K. M. (2019). A New ‘Washington Consensus’. Economic & Political Weekly, 54(8), 21.‏
- Sweta. (2023). India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, Map, Countries, at: B2n.ir/a91924.
- Szirmai, A (2005). The dynamics of socio-economic development: an introduction. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511817342.
- Tang, Frank (2020), China urged to develop its own international payment system to counter risk of US financial sanctions, at: B2n.ir/p69251.
- Teevan, C. San Bilal, E. D. & Medinilla, A. (2022). The Global Gateway: A recipe for EU geopolitical relevance?
- Triolo, P. Allison, K., Brown, C., & Broderick, K. (2020). The Digital Silk Road. Expanding China’s Digital Footprint. Eurasia Group, 8.
- U.S. Department of State. (2023). Blue Dot Network - Vision Statement. https://www.state.gov/blue-dot-network-vision-statement/.
- Ushakova, E. (2021). Arctic frontier: Ice Silk Road and its role in China’s advance to the Arctic. Apктикa и Ceвep, 43(43), 109-122.
- Vanuzzo, A. Nardelli, A. (2023). Meloni Tells China That Italy Plans to Exit Belt and Road, at: B2n.ir/a52228.
- Wang. Cindy & Wu. Debby. (2023). Taiwan Loses Ally of Eight Decades as Honduras Recognizes China. At: B2n.ir/f78090.
- Wei. Lingling. (2022). China Reins In Its Belt and Road Program, $1 Trillion Later. At: B2n.ir/g57491.
- whitehouse.gov. (2021). FACT SHEET: President Biden and G7 Leaders Launch Build Back Better World (B3W) Partnership, https://www.whitehouse.gov.
- Wu, X. & Ji, Y. (2020). The military drivers of China’s Belt and Road endeavor. China Review, 20(4), 223-244.‏
- Yuan, S. (2023). The Health Silk Road: A Double-Edged Sword? Assessing the Implications of China’s Health Diplomacy. World, 4(2), 333-346.
- Zhao, M. (2021). The Belt and Road Initiative and China–US strategic competition. China International Strategy Review, 1-13.
- Zhou, Cissy (2020). US dollar payment system debate continues, can America cut China off from SWIFT? At: B2n.ir/a93661.