پیمان آکوس و بازدارندگی استرالیا: پویایی های درحال تغییر در ایندو_ پاسیفیک

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار روابط بین الملل، گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشجوی دکترای علوم سیاسی،دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد. ایران

چکیده

مقاله حاضر درصدد بررسی پویایی‌های برآمده از پیمان آکوس بر بازدارندگی استرالیا و پیوند آن باقابلیت‌های ترکیبیِ ایالات-متحده در منطقه ایندوپاسیفیک در رویارویی با سیالیت محیط عملیاتی نوین است. پرسمان اصلی تحقیق حاضر آن است‌که چگونه استرالیا با پیمان آکوس نقش بازدارندگی را در منطقه انجام خواهد داد؟ این پیمان چه قابلیت‌ها و فرصت‌هایی به آن برای شکل دادن به محیط امنیتی خود می‌دهد؟ در فرضیه پژوهش استدلال می‌شود با تغییر پندار کشورهای شرق آسیا از تهدید چین، توافق آکوس با ایجاد قابلیت دفاعی برای تحول در راهبرد دفاعی و امنیتی استرالیا، این امکان را به آن می‌دهد تا با انطباق راهبردی با بازدارندگی بین‌دامنه‌ای ایالات‌متحده و بریتانیا، به مثابه یک قدرت دریایی با ناوگان مدرن ظهور کند و با فعال کردن دینامیزم قدرت در قالب مرکزیت در خوشه اقیانوسیه و قدرت پیوندی با شبکه امنیتی ایالات‌متحده در ایندوپاسیفیک به کنترل نظم از طریق بازدارندگی متعارف در برابر چین بپردازد. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد توافق آکوس، با ایجاد هم‌افزایی بین حوزه‌های مختلف نظامی و غیرنظامی، تجهیز استرالیا به قابلیت‌های بازدارندگی هسته‌ای در آینده، نظم منطقه‌ای ایندوپاسیفیک را با گذار از «جغرافیای صلح» به «جغرافیای منازعه» در وضعیت تعادل نوسانی قرار داده و سبب کارکرد نظم در لبه آشوب می‌شود. برای تبیین پیامدهای پیمان آکوس برای بازدارندگی استرالیا طور خاص و برای امنیت و نظم این منطقه به طور عام از روش تحلیل محتوای داده‌های کیفی گردآوری شده از مهمترین اسناد دفاع ملی، اظهارنظرهای مقام‌های دولتی استرالیا و نیز تحلیل کارشناسان مسائل دفاعی شرق آسیا و مراکز مطالعاتی امنیتی استفاده‌شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The AUKUS Treaty and Australian Deterrence: Changing Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Mahroogh 1
  • mohammad karampouriy 2
1 Assistant Professor of International Relations, Department of Political Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
2 PhD student in political science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Iran
چکیده [English]

The present article aims to examine the dynamics arised from the AUKUS Treaty on Australia's deterrence and its link with the USA' capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region. The main question is how Australia will fulfill its deterrent role in this region with the AUKUS agreement, and what capabilities and opportunities Australia gains to shape its security environment. The main argument is that the AUKUS agreement creates a defense capability for the evolution of Australia's defense and security strategy, allowing it to adapt its strategy to the cross-domain deterrence of the USA and the United Kingdom as a naval power emerges with a modern fleet. By activating power dynamics in the form of centrality in the Oceania cluster and power linked to the USA' security network in the Indo-Pacific, it controls order through conventional deterrence against China. The research findings show that the AUKUS agreement, by creating synergy between various military and non-military domains, will disrupt the regional order in the region from a "geography of peace" to a "geography of conflict" and cause function of order on the edge of chaos. The article is using the content analysis method of qualitative data collected from reports, national defense documents, updated defense strategic documents 2020 and Australia's maritime security strategy 2022, comments of Australian government officials, the analysis of experts and experts in East Asian defense issues and security study centers have been used.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • AUKUS
  • Australia
  • America
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific Ocean
 
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